Asteroid to Hit Moon in 2032? Scientists Respond

A small but headline-grabbing possibility has astronomers talking: asteroid 2024 YR4 currently carries a non-zero chance of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032. That probability is small — roughly 4% by the latest orbital refinements — but it’s large enough that scientists and space agencies are studying the object, modelling potential effects, and even exploring whether an active defense would ever be warranted.

What is 2024 YR4 and How Risky Is It?

2024 YR4 is a near-Earth asteroid first spotted in 2024. Follow-up observations improved orbital predictions and nudged the odds of a lunar impact from about 3.8% to roughly 4.3%. Importantly, those same observations have ruled out a meaningful chance of an Earth impact in 2032.

Why the fluctuation? Early orbit estimates come with sizeable uncertainties because the asteroid is small and faint; every new telescope observation tightens where we expect it to be years from now. Because 2024 YR4 is currently far from Earth, astronomers won’t be able to gather more tracking data until it returns into view (expected around 2028). That 4% estimate will likely change — almost certainly down to near zero — or else resolve into a definitive impact prediction.

If It Hits the Moon, What Would Happen?

An impact by a roughly 60-meter object wouldn’t shift the Moon’s orbit or pose a global danger to Earth. But it could produce significant local effects.

Lunar Surface Effects

A high-speed impact would create a fresh crater and vaporize some material at the strike site.

Debris and Satellites

Depending on the angle and speed, ejecta could be lofted into space. That material might threaten satellites in Earth orbit or the increasingly busy cis-lunar space used by communications and navigation platforms.

Meteor Displays

Some models show that large impacts on the Moon can send material that eventually intersects Earth, possibly creating spectacular meteor showers — though that outcome is not guaranteed.

In short: a lunar impact would be scientifically interesting, possibly disruptive to satellites, and visually dramatic in some scenarios — but not an extinction-level event.

What Are Scientists Proposing We Do?

Because the probability is small but non-zero, research groups have started to model response options. These range from monitoring and further observations to active intervention.

Wait and Refine

The conservative and typical path in planetary defense is to acquire better observations (when the asteroid returns to view) to shrink uncertainties and see whether the impact probability falls to zero.

Active Disruption or Deflection

Some researchers have explored more aggressive measures — including a hypothetical mission to disrupt or fragment the asteroid well before 2032. Ideas include the use of nuclear disruption or kinetic impactors. These proposals are preliminary, controversial, and would require international coordination, legal review, and significant engineering work long before 2032.

Most planetary-defense experts emphasize that active missions are expensive and technically complex. Until follow-up observations in 2028 produce a clearer orbit, many teams favor continued observation and modeling rather than committing to a mission.

Why the Moon — and Why Does It Matter?

The Moon is a much larger target in the sky than Earth-based telescopes’ error ranges might suggest. Even objects that no longer threaten Earth can still land on the Moon.

·       The Artemis program and other missions aim to put more humans and hardware in cislunar space in the 2020s and 2030s; a new source of debris could complicate those plans.

·       The Moon can act as a natural laboratory: impacts teach scientists about crater formation, lunar geology, and how small bodies interact with larger worlds.

·       Ejecta from the Moon can sometimes cross paths with Earth, creating secondary phenomena that are of both scientific and public interest.

How Confident Should the Public Be?

Short answer: reasonably confident that Earth is safe for 2032 from 2024 YR4, but watchful about lunar possibilities.

The headline-grabbing ’4% chance’ is real but conditional — it will almost certainly shift as telescopes gather more data. History shows that initial non-zero impact probabilities almost always decline to zero as orbit solutions improve. The 2028 observing window is the critical checkpoint.

What to Watch Next

2028 Visibility Window

Astronomers expect the asteroid to return to view around mid-2028; new tracking then will be decisive.

Agency Updates

NASA and ESA planetary-defense teams will continue to post orbit refinements and risk assessments as new observations arrive.

Peer-Reviewed Modeling

Researchers are already examining ejecta, satellite risk, and intervention feasibility — studies that will shape whether the community moves from ’monitor’ to ’act.’

Conclusion

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a small, distant space rock with a small chance (~4%) of striking the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032. The possibility is intriguing and worth monitoring because of potential effects on lunar surface science, satellites, and cislunar operations — but it does not currently pose a threat to Earth.

Scientists will refine the orbit with more observations (especially in 2028), and those refinements will most likely rule out a lunar impact — or else confirm one early enough for realistic mitigation planning. Until then, the best response is careful observation, modeling, and international discussion about what to do if the odds climb.